2024-03-18 • Actualizada
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rates at 4.35% following its two-day meeting concluding on Tuesday. Despite holding rates steady since December, the RBA has hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes due to persistently high inflation, which has exceeded its target range of 2% to 3%. During its February meeting, some RBA members advocated for a 25 basis points increase in interest rates. While the RBA is not expected to raise rates in March, it is likely to maintain a hawkish stance due to concerns about inflation. Analysts predict that the RBA may wait until inflation moderates within its target range, which they expect to occur in the September quarter of 2024. However, the RBA's hawkishness may be constrained by a cooling Australian economy, as evidenced by sluggish GDP growth in the December quarter.
At the moment, on the H4 timeframe of AUDJPY, we see price currently riding into the trendline resistance and the 88% Fibonacci retracement level. Also, there is a pivot zone from the daily timeframe being respected by the current price action - which leads me to expect a bearish impulse from the aftermath of the rates decision.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 97.215
Invalidation: 98.231
On the Daily timeframe of AUDNZD, we can see price approaching the 88% of the Fibonacci retracement level, as well as the trendline resistance. The market structure also appears clearly bearish. All of these factors point to a possible bearish impulse following the rate statement release.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 1.06373
Invalidation: 1.08365
In line with the analysis last week, we’ve seen good movement from the bearish momentum on AUDUSD, but I believe we may see a change in the market direction shortly. From the chart we can see the price action currently approaching the trendline support and the demand zone. The outcome of the RBA’s rate statement could provide just the right motivation to turn the direction of the market around.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 0.66611
Invalidation: 0.64779
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Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 150.30 con TP1:150.00... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Compras intradía sobre 149.40 con TP: 150.00, TP2:151.00
Panorama General de la semana pasada…
Análisis Fundamental y Análisis técnico EURUSD, EURGBP y EURCAD
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 1.0820 / 1.0841... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 1.0827...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 2200 / 2194... Escenario alcista más próximo: Compras sobre 2197... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Considera compras en torno a cada zona de demanda...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 5220 ... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 5225 (Si el precio falla en romper por debajo con decisión)
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